Analysis: How Trump’s second term has affected elections around the world

Australia this weekend joined a fast-growing list: countries that held elections over which President Donald Trump’s foreign policies and rhetoric loomed large.

Australia’s center-left prime minister, Anthony Albanese, won a second term Saturday after months of lagging in the polls. While other factors were at play, Trump’s tariffs on Australia appear to have boosted the incumbent’s prospects, analysts say – echoing the results of Monday’s election in Canada, where voters seeking an answer to Trump elected Mark Carney.

From Germany to Greenland, the U.S. president has become a key factor in global electoral politics, as some voters added to their long-standing concerns a new question: Who will stand up to Trump?

Australia

After leading in the polls for six months, Australia’s conservative candidate, Peter Dutton, found himself trailing as Australia’s May 3 election approached. On Saturday, the Labor party won a resounding victory, increasing its parliamentary majority – including by taking Dutton’s seat, a historic loss for an opposition leader in an Australian federal election.

Dutton at times appeared to emulate Trump: A China hawk and former detective, he promised to tackle government inefficiency if he became prime minister, echoing Trump and Elon Musk’s U.S. DOGE Service. (He’s even earned the nickname “DOGE-y Dutton.”) He also promised to slash government and school “cultural diversity and inclusion” initiatives, akin to Trump’s rampage against DEI programs.

But Trump’s standing in Australia plummeted with the imposition of his hefty tariffs worldwide – including a 10% tariff on goods from this longtime ally – and Dutton’s favor fell alongside Trump’s, analysts told the Washington Post.

After the mass disruption to the global trading system, Albanese saw improvement in the polls.

“This is not the act of a friend,” Albanese said when Australia was hit with Trump’s tariff.

Albanese alluded to Dutton’s failed embrace of Trump in his victory speech Saturday.

“We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else,” the reelected prime minister said. “We do not seek out our inspiration overseas. We find it right here in our values and in our people.”

Canada

Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal Party clinched a win in April, overcoming a 20-plus point polling deficit in a comeback fueled, in part, by Trump’s trade war and annexation threats looming over the country.

“As I’ve been warning for months,” Carney said in his victory address, “America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us.”

Trump has repeatedly threatened to make Canada a 51st state, and announced tariffs on some of Canada’s largest exports to the United States. On the morning of Canada’s election day, Trump wished “good luck” to Canadians in a social media post, repeating his threat to annex their country.

A few months before the April 28 election, polls favored Pierre Poilievre – a career politician and right-wing populist who once declared war on “wokeism.” But as Trump’s aggressive foreign policy angered many Canadians, Poilievre’s similarities to Trump counted against him. Within months, Trump’s tariffs and talk of a 51st state altered the tone of Canada’s politics and gave rise to a Canadian nationalism.

Meanwhile Carney, a former central banker who replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister after he stepped down in March, tapped into Canadians’ concerns about Trump, many of whom sought someone who could protect their country from the American leader, the Post reported.

Greenland

Less than three months before Greenland’s elections – and before taking office – Trump laid claim to the semiautonomous territory of the kingdom of Denmark, posting on social media: “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”

Weeks later, he reiterated his desire to acquire Greenland, writing: “Greenland is an incredible place, and the people will benefit tremendously if, and when, it becomes part of our Nation. We will protect it, and cherish it, from a very vicious outside World. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!”

The comments drew a striking amount of attention to Greenland’s elections, which have rarely been near the global spotlight. Mute Egede, Greenland’s prime minister at the time, stressed that Greenland is “not for sale.” The parliament banned political parties from receiving contributions “from foreign or anonymous contributors,” in a move aimed at protecting Greenland’s political integrity. And in a final debate days before Greenland elected a new government, the leaders of the five parties in parliament expressed a unanimous distrust of Trump.

Trump’s threats have since remained a focal point for Greenland’s leaders: newly sworn in Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen this month stressed that Greenland “will never, ever be a piece of property that can be bought by just anyone.”

Germany

Ahead of Germany’s election, officials in the Trump administration openly endorsed the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party – a party that German intelligence would go on to classify as an extremist organization.

Musk wrote on Dec. 20 that “only the AfD can save Germany.” He posted to X, the social media platform he owns, more than 70 times promoting the AfD to his 218 million followers, amplifying the party’s reach on social media. Vice President JD Vance met with Alice Weidel, the head of the AfD party, becoming the most senior U.S. official to do so, and in a speech attempted to export MAGA politics to Europe.

German leaders were outraged, and accused the Trump administration of interfering in domestic affairs less than 10 days before national elections. The formerly fringe party, which had been gaining traction well before Trump’s return to office, came in second, with more than 20% of the vote.

Europe needs to “achieve independence from the United States, step by step,” Friedrich Merz, the conservative Christian Democrat set to become the next chancellor, said after the vote.

Other elections

The international response to Trump at the ballot box has not only manifested as backlash.

In the U.K., the right-wing, anti-immigration Reform party has attempted to balance critiques of Trump with efforts to tap into similar undercurrent to those that propelled him to power. It made historic gains in local elections this week. Party founder Nigel Farage, who championed Britain’s Brexit vote to leave the EU, has aligned himself with Trump.

In Romania, ultranationalist George Simion is a front-runner in the nation’s presidential election this weekend. Simion has voiced support for Trump’s MAGA movement.

In Ecuador, President Daniel Noboa, who won reelection this month, may have received a boost from his seemingly friendly relationship with Trump, Ecuadorian political analyst Caroline Ávila told The Post.

And there are more elections coming up: South Korea is set to elect a president in June, and Japan is expected to hold an election for its House of Councillors in July. Politics for both key U.S. allies could be affected by the impact of Trump’s tariffs.