Chance of thunder with early spring storm

BRAINERD — Messy is how the National Weather Service in Duluth is describing the early spring storm arriving this weekend.

The Brainerd lakes area is in a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm Friday, March 14, with general thunderstorms expected to the north and east, including Wadena, Cass, northern Crow Wing and northern Aitkin counties. Morrison and Mille Lacs counties are also in the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

The strong storm system is crossing the nation from Minnesota to Texas. The middle of the country is covered with high wind and red flag warnings for wildfire danger. Western Minnesota into the Dakotas was in a winter storm watch Thursday as the storm continued to move east. By Thursday, that winter storm watch encompassed Wadena County where it was in effect through midnight Sunday.

As of Thursday night in the Brainerd lakes area, temperatures were still hugging 60 degrees beneath fair skies.

Friday should provide another warm day, but then things are expected to change.

Record high?

Friday provides a chance at record-setting potential. The forecast calls for a high of 67 degrees. The high temperature record for March 14 was set in 2012 at 64 degrees.

The Brainerd area came within a couple of degrees of setting a new high temperature record Thursday after the Brainerd Lakes Regional Airport weather station reported 60 degrees. The record for March 13 was set at 62 degrees during that warm spell in 2012. The normal high this time of year is 38 degrees.

A new record in Brainerd was set Monday, March 10, when the temperature rose to 66 degrees.

To date, the coldest day in March was March 1 when the high was 24 degrees with a low of 5 degrees. March has mostly sported mild days. The snowpack is limited to extended shady areas and multiple grassfires have been reported in recent days.

Changing seasons 

Those who are out medallion hunting for the St. Patrick’s Day festivities may want to look early or pack a rain coat. A chance of showers comes in after 1 p.m. Friday. Expect breezy conditions with a southeast wind that may gust as high as 25 mph. By Friday night, it may be time to tuck in with a window view and a good book as showers and thunderstorms are likely. Winds shift to the east and the chance of precipitation is 80% with new rainfall amounts possible between a quarter of an inch to an inch.

By Saturday, when Brainerd/Baxter and Crosslake are ready for parades and events, rain is likely before 1 p.m. and then rain and snow are likely between 1-4 p.m. After 4 p.m., snow is likely. The high may top out at 48 degrees Saturday as the wind shifts to the northwest. It will be time to hold on to the St. Patrick’s Day finery as gusts could be as high as 30 mph.

Contributed / National Weather Service

The chance of precipitation is 70%. But the good news, at least for shovelers, could be that the snowfall is expected to be less than a half-inch and it should end more quickly.

For paradegoers, the good news is the original forecast for freezing rain on Saturday has decreased with a “very limited” chance for freezing rain in north-central Minnesota. The few hours of freezing rain is forecast to the north and west of Crow Wing County and includes Cass County in a small swath up through Walker and on to the Canadian border. Minor water runoff is possible farther to the north and east where the snowpack lingers.

Forecast 

To recap, Friday night could bring thunderstorms to the area with moderate to locally heavy rain possible. How much the area benefits from the moisture will depend, in part, on the frost levels and runoff.

Rain is expected to continue Saturday morning with a limited chance for freezing rain and by the afternoon a rain/snow mix could be affecting most of northern Minnesota. A refreeze of what moisture does fall is possible. The Brainerd area has a 30% chance of thunderstorms Friday night with a 25% chance into the early hours of Sunday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, at 5-15%, south of Highway 2 late Friday where large hail and gusty winds are listed as the main threats. A refreeze is possible Saturday night as temperatures fall quickly — from a possible 65 degrees as of 6 p.m. Friday to 29 degrees by 6 p.m. Saturday — meaning surfaces may be slippery.

The high on Sunday may reach 32 degrees amid breezy conditions. The weather service expects any light snow to end early Sunday but blustery winds of 30-45 mph are possible in the early afternoon.

Sunday night’s low temperature could fall to 19 degrees meaning things could be slippery for the Monday morning start. The day, which is forecast to be mostly sunny, should warm to about 45 degrees with a south wind.

Tuesday brings a chance of snow, a high near 47 degrees and wind gusting as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday also brings a chance of snow, a high near 39 degrees, and winds gusting as high as 25 mph.

By Thursday, the forecast calls for a high near 40 degrees and wind gusts up to 20 mph.

So those with spring fever may have to wait just a little longer for the real thing to arrive. The National Weather Service will be updating information on this storm system Friday morning.

Renee Richardson, managing editor, may be reached at 218-855-5852 or renee.richardson@brainerddispatch.com. Follow on Twitter at www.twitter.com/DispatchBizBuzz.