Flu and the as-yet unknown Disease X, will most likely be the cause behind next global pandemics, scientists have said.
Among a global network of infectious diseases, experts have ranked influenza as the number one illness of concern, regarding pandemic potential in a new study.
Coming in second behind the flu, the currently unidentified Disease X was the next likely pathogen to spark a pandemic.
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Other sicknesses with the potential to create a pandemic included Coronavirus, Ebola, the original strain of SARS and the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever.
The study was published in the journal Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, and will be formally presented later this month.
It questioned 187 experts on global infectious diseases from 57 countries.
Each expert was asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived pandemic risk, encompassing diseases featured in the World Health Organisation's (WHO) Research and Development Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, which focuses on key infectious diseases that pose significant threats to public health.
As part of the study, the experts ranked the pathogens in order of perceived risk, as well as suggesting pathogens not listed with WHO.
The responses revealed that influenza viruses were viewed as the pathogen of highest concern, with over half (57%) ranking it first and around a sixth (17%) ranking it second.
More than a fifth (21 %) of the experts ranked the as-yet-unknown Disease X as having the highest pandemic potential, with another 14% ranking it second.
Dr Jon Salmanton-García, the lead author of the study from the University of Cologne in Germany explained that the flu already causes “mini pandemics” across the world each winter.
He said: "Each winter we have an influenza season. One could say that this means that every winter there are little pandemics.
"They are more or less controlled because the different strains are not virulent enough.
"Yet, every season the strains involved change, that is the reason why we can get influenza several times in life and vaccines change year to year.
"In case a new strain becomes more virulent, this control could be lost.”
Dr Salmanton-García said that the top pathogens of concern were “characterised by their transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a history of previous epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.”
However, he added that the world is now much more prepared for a global pandemic after Covid, and that “preparedness and surveillance are now, vitally, better funded”.
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